The impact of hurricane disturbances on a tropical forest: implementing a palm plant functional type and hurricane disturbance module in ED2-HuDi V1.0

Abstract. Hurricanes commonly disturb and damage tropical forests. Hurricane frequency intensity are predicted to change under the changing climate. The short-term impacts of hurricane disturbances forests have been widely studied, but long-term rarely investigated. Modeling is critical investigate potential response future disturbances, particularly if nature with Unfortunately, existing models forest dynamics not presently able account for disturbances. Therefore, we implement Disturbance in Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) (ED2-HuDi). disturbance includes hurricane-induced immediate mortality subsequent recovery modules. parameterizations based on observations at Bisley Experimental Watersheds (BEW) Luquillo Forest Puerto Rico. We add one new plant functional type (PFT) – Palm, as palms cannot be categorized into current PFTs known an abundant component worldwide. calibrated BEW using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach. optimal simulation obtained from GLUE has a mean relative error −21 %, −12 −15 % stem density, basal area, aboveground biomass, respectively. also agrees well observation terms PFT composition (+1 −8 −2 +9 differences percentages “Early”, “Mid”, “Late”, “Palm” PFTs, respectively) size structure (+0.8 percentage large stems). Lastly, parameter set, study impact initial condition single disturbance. results indicate that, compared no-hurricane scenario, little stems) (<1 each four PFTs) leads 5 higher biomass after 80 years succession. assumption less severe 4 increase biomass.